March/April 2000
21st Century Opportunities
A few years ago, at a convention, a consultant asked the audience how many spent a lot of time trying to keep informed. A wave of hands went up! Then he asked how many felt under-informed. Another wave of hands went up! Most media … daily papers, TV news, or periodicals … focus on events, which are fleeting and have little sense of continuity. A few books and periodicals focus on major trends in the world. They give context and meaning to the events that pour through the other media.
One of the functions of “Stu’s News” is to share some of those trends … those that are most likely to affect your firm. The January-February edition of “The Futurist,” the publication of the World Future Society, featured a huge number of articles listing major trends. Here’re some to ponder.
- Technology.
By 2002, electronic notebooks will have display contrast as good as paper. An automated highway prototype will be complete. And by 2004, cars will be powered by hydrogen fuel cells.
- Aging.
By the middle of the 21st Century, life spans of 120 years and more will become common. Most people entering “old age” will be healthier, fitter, and more energetic than any previous generation. Older people are the fastest growing demographic group in developed countries. They’ve had more time to accumulate wealth and, with paid-off mortgages, will often have greater disposable income. The “aging” market will likely expand well beyond assisted living facilities and cruise ships. Opportunities should be strong for facilities and services that provide enriching life experiences for this group.
- Buying “Experience.”
The demand for products and services that provide a stimulating experience is already growing, and will continue to accelerate. Look for services that provide nostalgia, stories, memories, meaning, spirituality or adventure. The entire tourism industry will benefit. Restaurants or retailers that offer a unique experience will also prosper.
- Global Marketplace.
The Internet is facilitating easier, bordellos trading of goods and services. Even tiny firms can advertise globally. Today’s $7 trillion world export of goods and services will grow to $11 trillion within five years. The globalized economy will also foster greater competition … and innovation. World currencies are gradually uniting. The Euro simplified European currencies, and helped their commerce. Argentina and others …are contemplating a switch to the U.S. Dollar. Even language is becoming less of a barrier, as English becomes a global language, due to airlines and the Internet.
- The Environment.
Environmentalists are mimicking nature’s processes to clean air and water. Canadian scientists are curing sick buildings by filtering stale indoor air through ecosystems of rocks, plants, and microorganisms. A similar process is purifying municipal and industrial wastewater … enough so you can swim in the exit water.
Phytoremediation, the use of plants to devour pollution, may soon cost less than conventional cleanup methods. Willow trees are being tested for their ability to absorb nitrates and phosphates from water. Regress and mustard grass can decontaminate oil and water, removing heavy metals, petroleum, pesticides and other chemicals. Sunflowers cleaned up 95% of the radioactive waste in a Chernobyl pond … in hours!
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Energy.
Energy.
Environmentalists are mimicking nature’s processes to clean air and water. Canadian scientists are curing sick buildings by filtering stale indoor air through ecosystems of rocks, plants, and microorganisms. A similar process is purifying municipal and industrial wastewater … enough so you can swim in the exit water.
Phytoremediation, the use of plants to devour pollution, may soon cost less than conventional cleanup methods. Willow trees are being tested for their ability to absorb nitrates and phosphates from water. Ryegrass and mustard grass can decontaminate oil and water, removing heavy metals, petroleum, pesticides and other chemicals. Sunflowers cleaned up 95% of the radioactive waste in a Chernobyl pond … in hours!
- Seafood.
Overfishing has exhausted the world’s fishing grounds. But world seafood supplies are increasing, due to a huge growth in aquaculture. It became a fast-growth industry in the 1990’s, and should continue to grow. The biggest challenges: aquaculture pollution of water; and 17% of ocean catch is now being used to feed captive-bred fish.
- Communities.
Since 1984, we’ve experienced “The 5th Migratory Movement,” from urban (and suburban) to rural. Towns of 8,000 – 80,000, one to two hours from a city have experienced huge rates of growth. (Follow Wal-Mart!) Signs are emerging that some cities may revitalize, and become world-class “super-cities” by upgrading their environmental quality. They’ll have: rapid transit, to eliminate congestion and air pollution; resource recovery, not landfills; plenty of quality water; and a lot of open space.
- Community Services.
As municipal bureaucracies falter, cities are streamlining by contracting out services to private companies … including operations of facilities such as schools and airports. Disgruntled citizens are also making their own laws, by forming private communities that offer better security, clearer property rights, and more reliable services. In cyberspace, entrepreneurs offer mediation services to settle disputes over domain names or copyright infringement, because governments have not addressed such issues.
What impact might some of these trends have for your firm?
What impact might some of these trends have for your firm?
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You should have received notice about a unique two-week trip to Tibet and Nepal, Prompted by one of our engineering clients. The trip is about two thirds full already. If this is something in which you may have interest, let us know … phone, or email. We’d be delighted to answer any questions you may have. The trip is unique, in being able to help you experience some of the world’s most phenomenal architecture and scenery … all within a two week period.