September/October 2001
5 Regions of the Future
This year’s World Future Society conference had many presenters that truly stretched perspectives about where we’re going and why. Here are highlights from one of the presentations, Joel A. Barker’s; it provides a model for helping you anticipate and ensure the success you’re likely to experience from different services you provide.
We’re now at the emergence of a “Technological Super-shift” that impacts many aspects of life: energy; environment; transportation; communication; health care. A “Region” is more than a paradigm. Sets of inventions begin to fit together … and shape the world. Regions are defined by a function … how you use a technology. Here are the five …
1. “Super-Tech”
This is closest to “Hi-Tech,” which dominated the 20th century. It focuses on these assumptions or beliefs …
- Science and technology can solve all problems;
- Leisure over work … given the choice;
- Superabundance is around the corner;
- Humans can supplant nature; and … “Big is beautiful.”
This region’s biases about global issues …
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Population:
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“There’s always room for one more.” |
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Transportation:
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Fast! |
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Communication:
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Fast and broad … “Anyone, anytime.” |
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Housing:
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Smart and huge. |
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Materials:
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Create new, better products. |
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Health:
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Antibodies for everything, and artificial parts. |
2. “Limits Technology”
This region believes there are limits in population, pollution, global warming, and restoration. They see education as the key. The beliefs:
- Scarcity is just around the corner;
- Science and technology are short term;
- Nature knows best;
- Humans work hard and survive (for 10,000 years); and …
- “Efficiency is beautiful.”
This region’s issue biases …
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Energy:
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Run most efficiently, conserve, no CO2 emissions. |
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Population:
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Zero growth … even cut until we reach ½ billion. |
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Transportation:
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High efficiency. |
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Housing:
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Smaller, energy efficient, easy to fix, lot of walking. |
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Materials:
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Use less, recycle, durable, ebooks. |
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Food:
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Preserve, protect, stop feeding animals. |
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Communication:
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Satellite … doesn’t waste material for poles. |
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Health:
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Prevention, vaccines, better diagnostics, avoid antibiotics. |
3. “Appropriate Technology”
This region believes there are sufficient resources for everyone to enjoy a quality of life. The beliefs:
- Science and technology is okay, if properly scaled;
- Humans are … “Shepherds of Nature”;
- Humans need to work, to feel fully human, and grow; and …
- Small but beautiful.
This region’s observations and biases about global issues are …
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Energy:
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Wind, where there’s wind; solar, where it’s sunny |
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Population:
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Careful, slow growth. |
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Transportation:
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Super bikes, dirigibles, light rail. |
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Housing:
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What’s locally appropriate, and self-sustaining |
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Food:
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Fish, vegetables … especially locally grown. |
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Communication:
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Face-to-face first … then satellite. |
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Health:
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Localized. |
4. “Bio-Technology”
This region combines the newest and oldest technologies. The beliefs:
- Human needs can be grown, biologically;
- Nature’s already solved the problem … just find the solution; and …
- Live well with nature.
This region’s observations and biases about issues are …
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Energy:
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Biomass, heat-producing plants. |
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Population:
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In balance with other life. |
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Housing:
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Grow new materials, tree-grown houses or sea-grown structures. |
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Materials:
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Bacteria mining … such as silk. |
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Food:
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Caffeine insecticide and medicine, cholesterol-reducing tomatoes. |
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Communication:
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Trees communicate with each other … DNA computing, bio films. |
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Health:
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Medicines from plants. |
5. “Human Technology”
This region believes we need to use the talents with which we’re endowed … that we’re just scratching the potential of our understanding of what we can do. The beliefs:
- Real needs aren’t material;
- It’s hard to measure human technology, such as power generation; and …
- “We are the best!”
This region’s observations and biases about issues are …
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Energy:
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Create it. |
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Population:
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Quality of life. |
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Transportation:
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Walk, run, and out-of-body travel. |
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Food:
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No additives, “mother’s milk.” |
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Communication:
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Quality circles, music, facial expression, pheromones. |
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Health:
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Wellness, biofeedback, acupuncture, stem cells, immunization. |
Some products or services, such as the Internet, are used by people in all five regions … though for different reasons. If a product or service gains acceptance by multiple regions, it gains a broader base of support … and greater marketplace success. As your firm can’t do all things for all people, when you’re contemplating a new service, ask …
“For whom are we making (or doing) this?”
It’s a different way of seeing the world. But as leaders need to think more expansively … here’s another, and somewhat unique model for viewing and planning your future.